Financial Modeling and Forecasting Big decisions, backed by a model.
We build the financial models and forecasts leadership, lenders and investors rely on for expansions, acquisitions, pricing, capital raises and cash planning, with every assumption documented.
Built by an actuary who led a multi-billion-dollar forecast at a Fortune 100 company.
Decisions that need a model, not a guess
The bigger the decision, the more it pays to see the numbers before you commit.
Growth
- Opening a new location or entering a new market.
- Adding a fleet, facility or product line.
- Hiring ahead of revenue.
- Choosing between two expansion plans.
Capital
- Raising money from investors.
- Applying for a bank loan or SBA financing.
- Refinancing or restructuring debt.
- Lenders and investors asking for a model you don't have.
Deals
- Valuing a business you want to buy.
- Preparing a business for sale.
- Evaluating a merger or partnership.
- Checking a target's numbers before you sign.
Cash and planning
- Cash running tight without warning.
- Budgets built on last year plus a percentage.
- No 13-week cash forecast.
- Seasonal swings catching the business off guard.
Pricing and margin
- Pricing set without knowing true cost.
- Margins shrinking without a clear reason.
- Unprofitable jobs, customers or products hidden in averages.
- Bids priced on gut feel.
Risk
- No view of the downside before committing.
- A spreadsheet only its author understands.
- Forecasts that miss, with nobody sure why.
- Assumptions nobody wrote down.
Financial modeling services
Each model is built for the decision in front of you and the people who will review it.
Growth and investment
Know the return before you commit.
6 services- Expansion modelsReturns, payback and capital needs for growth plans.
- New location modelsSite-level revenue, costs and ramp-up for a new location.
- Capital project modelsFacilities, equipment and capex evaluated before you spend.
- Fleet and equipment modelsBuy, lease or finance decisions modeled side by side.
- Real estate pro formasDevelopment, acquisition and hold models.
- Market entry modelsDemand, pricing and costs for a new market or product.
Capital and investors
Numbers built to hold up under review.
6 services- Investor modelsFinancial models built for investor review, with assumptions documented.
- Lender and bank modelsDebt service coverage, covenants and repayment scenarios.
- Pitch financialsProjections and key metrics for your deck.
- Fundraising scenariosHow much to raise, when, and what it does to ownership.
- Data room financialsClean historicals and projections for due diligence.
- Investor reportingActuals against plan for investors and boards.
Transactions
See the deal clearly before you sign.
6 services- Acquisition modelsWhat a business is worth and what buying it does to yours.
- Valuation analysisValuation ranges for planning and negotiation, using standard methods.
- Due diligence analysisA target's numbers tested before you commit.
- Merger and integration modelsCombined forecasts, synergies and integration costs.
- Sale preparationYour numbers organized and modeled before you go to market.
- Deal structure scenariosEarn-outs, seller notes and payment terms compared.
Forecasting and planning
A forward view of the business, updated from actuals.
6 services- Three-statement modelsIncome statement, balance sheet and cash flow, linked.
- Rolling forecastsForecasts updated from your actual numbers each month.
- 13-week cash flowWeek-by-week cash visibility for tight periods.
- Budgeting and FP&ADriver-based budgets and plan versus actual.
- Headcount planningHiring plans tied to revenue and capacity.
- Revenue and demand forecastingSales and demand forecasts by product, location or season.
Pricing and risk
The downside, priced before it happens.
6 services- Pricing modelsPrices built from true cost and target margin.
- Unit economicsProfit per customer, job, product or location.
- Break-even analysisThe volume and price you need to cover costs.
- Scenario and sensitivity analysisBase, upside and downside cases, so the risk is clear before you commit.
- Stress testingHow the business holds up if key assumptions go wrong.
- Bid pricing modelsConsistent bid pricing from costs, risk and margin targets.
Financial modeling by industry
Built on the drivers that matter in your industry.
Real estate development
Common problems
- Pro formas that break when one assumption changes.
- Phased projects modeled in separate files.
- Lenders asking for scenarios you don't have.
What we build
- Development pro formas
- Phased project models
- Lender scenarios
- Investor returns
Construction and roofing
Common problems
- Bids priced on gut feel.
- Cash flow by project unclear.
- Growth decisions made without a model.
What we build
- Bid pricing models
- Project cash flow
- Backlog forecasts
- Expansion models
Architecture and engineering
Common problems
- Fees set without knowing true cost.
- Hiring decisions made without a backlog forecast.
- Partner and ownership economics unclear.
What we build
- Fee and pricing models
- Backlog and hiring forecasts
- Partner economics
- Expansion models
Transportation, fleet and dispatch
Common problems
- Fleet growth decided without utilization data.
- Buy versus lease compared by hand.
- Investors asking for fleet-level returns.
What we build
- Fleet expansion models
- Buy versus lease
- Utilization forecasts
- Investor models
Healthcare, dental and home health
Common problems
- New locations opened without a ramp-up model.
- Practice acquisitions priced on rules of thumb.
- Provider compensation hard to model.
What we build
- New location models
- Practice acquisition models
- Provider compensation
- Multi-site forecasts
Staffing and HR
Common problems
- Payroll funding gaps between pay dates and collections.
- Margin by client unclear.
- Growth limited by working capital.
What we build
- Cash and payroll funding
- Client margin models
- Working capital forecasts
- Growth scenarios
Retail and e-commerce
Common problems
- Customer acquisition payback unknown.
- Inventory buys based on last year.
- Channel profitability unclear.
What we build
- Unit economics
- Inventory and demand forecasts
- Channel profitability
- Cash planning
Food and hospitality
Common problems
- New locations opened on optimism.
- Food and labor costs moving faster than prices.
- Demand swings causing waste.
What we build
- New location models
- Menu and pricing models
- Demand forecasts
- Unit economics
Travel centers and fuel
Common problems
- Site expansion decided without a full model.
- Fuel and in-store margins modeled separately.
- Land and development deals under time pressure.
What we build
- Site development models
- Fuel and store margin models
- Land acquisition analysis
- Lender packages
Professional services and legal
Common problems
- Pricing based on habit, not cost.
- Capacity unclear for new work.
- Partner economics hard to model.
What we build
- Pricing models
- Capacity planning
- Partner economics
- Growth scenarios
How we work
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Intro call
A short call to understand the problem, what it is costing you, and whether we are the right fit.
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Plan and design
We learn how the work runs today, put a number on what it costs, and design the solution with your team.
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Build and launch
We build, test and launch in stages, connected to the systems you already use where possible.
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Support and expansion
We can support and extend the system as your business grows.
Frequently asked questions
What is a financial model?
A structured forecast of revenue, costs and cash under different assumptions, used to decide whether a move is worth making.
Who builds the models?
An actuary-led team with experience forecasting a multi-billion-dollar book of business.
How long does it take?
It depends on the decision and the data available. A focused model can come together quickly; larger models with several scenarios take longer. You get a written timeline before work begins.
Will lenders accept it?
Models are built for lender and investor review, with every assumption documented. Acceptance is the lender's decision.
What decision are you weighing right now?
Bring it to a 20-minute call. We'll tell you what a model would need to answer it.
We start a limited number of builds each quarter so the founders stay involved in every one.